LMT - UAL Pairs Trade
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2 positions on this trade
1 long · 1 short
1 active position
Nick Powell: UAL - LMT — “Trump postpones Iran military strike at Gulf allies' request, signaling shift from military escalation toward diplomatic resolution. This geopolitical de-escalation creates inverse impacts from the prior escalation thesis: (1) Airlines benefit structurally—lower oil prices as Brent crude loses geopolitical premium, reduced travel demand destruction from conflict risk, better economic outlook as uncertainty eases; (2) Defense contractors face headwinds—reduced military deployment optionality, deflating tail-risk premium on defense spending, lost momentum from escalation narrative. United Airlines (UAL) captures the de-escalation upside: fuel cost relief from declining crude, improved leisure/business travel demand, reduced economic uncertainty. Lockheed Martin (LMT) faces repricing downside as military strike deferral removes the core escalation driver. Pairs trade reverses the prior escalation setup to capture airline outperformance vs. defense underperformance during de-escalation window. News-driven edge highest in first week while oil markets reprice down and travel demand sentiment shifts toward normalization. 1-week duration captures maximum alpha from this geopolitical repricing before market fully absorbs de-escalation implications and any subsequent diplomatic developments.”
Entry: May 18, 2026, 8:00 AM · LMT @ $516.80 / UAL @ $92.67
Exit: May 19, 2026, 11:00 PM · LMT @ $527.87 / UAL @ $89.06
Prices delayed ~15 min
| Date | LMT | UAL | Net | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 8:00 AM | $516.80 | +0.00% | $92.67 | +0.00% | +0.00% |
| May 18, 9:00 AM | $515.63 | -0.23% | $92.39 | +0.30% | +0.04% |
| May 18, 10:00 AM | $515.80 | -0.19% | $92.50 | +0.19% | +0.00% |
| May 18, 11:00 AM | $518.50 | +0.33% | $92.40 | +0.29% | +0.31% |
| May 18, 12:00 PM | $518.00 | +0.23% | $93.58 | -0.98% | -0.37% |
| May 18, 1:00 PM | $517.50 | +0.14% | $93.92 | -1.35% | -0.61% |
| May 18, 1:30 PM | $519.65 | +0.55% | $95.17 | -2.69% | -1.07% |
| May 18, 2:30 PM | $519.46 | +0.51% | $93.36 | -0.74% | -0.11% |
| May 18, 3:30 PM | $522.61 | +1.13% | $93.02 | -0.38% | +0.37% |
| May 18, 4:30 PM | $522.53 | +1.11% | $93.11 | -0.47% | +0.32% |
| May 18, 5:30 PM | $521.24 | +0.86% | $91.61 | +1.15% | +1.01% |
| May 18, 6:30 PM | $522.88 | +1.18% | $92.42 | +0.28% | +0.73% |
| May 18, 7:30 PM | $528.27 | +2.22% | $92.57 | +0.11% | +1.16% |
| May 18, 8:00 PM | $528.00 | +2.17% | $92.57 | +0.11% | +1.14% |
| May 18, 9:00 PM | $528.31 | +2.23% | $92.55 | +0.13% | +1.18% |
| May 18, 10:00 PM | $528.21 | +2.21% | $92.90 | -0.25% | +0.98% |
| May 18, 11:00 PM | $528.71 | +2.30% | $92.85 | -0.19% | +1.06% |
| May 19, 8:00 AM | $528.95 | +2.35% | $92.50 | +0.19% | +1.27% |
| May 19, 9:00 AM | $530.14 | +2.58% | $92.67 | +0.00% | +1.29% |
| May 19, 10:00 AM | $530.29 | +2.61% | $92.57 | +0.11% | +1.36% |
| May 19, 11:00 AM | $529.00 | +2.36% | $93.49 | -0.88% | +0.74% |
| May 19, 12:00 PM | $528.60 | +2.28% | $92.35 | +0.35% | +1.32% |
| May 19, 1:00 PM | $528.22 | +2.21% | $91.22 | +1.56% | +1.89% |
| May 19, 1:30 PM | $527.96 | +2.16% | $89.37 | +3.56% | +2.86% |
| May 19, 2:30 PM | $524.93 | +1.57% | $88.89 | +4.08% | +2.83% |
| May 19, 3:30 PM | $525.13 | +1.61% | $89.23 | +3.71% | +2.66% |
| May 19, 4:30 PM | $524.73 | +1.53% | $89.75 | +3.15% | +2.34% |
| May 19, 5:30 PM | $525.58 | +1.70% | $89.76 | +3.14% | +2.42% |
| May 19, 6:30 PM | $525.54 | +1.69% | $89.32 | +3.62% | +2.65% |
| May 19, 7:30 PM | $526.82 | +1.94% | $89.11 | +3.84% | +2.89% |
| May 19, 8:00 PM | $526.84 | +1.94% | $89.29 | +3.65% | +2.80% |
| May 19, 9:00 PM | $526.60 | +1.90% | $89.25 | +3.69% | +2.79% |
| May 19, 10:00 PM | $526.95 | +1.96% | $89.15 | +3.80% | +2.88% |
| May 19, 11:00 PM | $527.87 | +2.14% | $89.06 | +3.89% | +3.02% |