LUV - ULCC Pairs Trade
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2 positions on this trade
2 long · 0 short
2 active positions
Nick Powell: LUV - ULCC — “Frontier Airlines (ULCC) involved in fatal runway incident in Denver; pedestrian killed during takeoff, NTSB investigation launched. Event creates acute negative sentiment for Frontier: operational/safety scrutiny, brand damage, potential regulatory/insurance impacts. Southwest Airlines (LUV) unaffected by Frontier-specific incident and likely benefits from relative competitive positioning and potential market share recovery. This is a single-operator incident (pedestrian fence breach), not a systemic airline safety issue, creating an asymmetric opportunity between directly comparable ULCC peers. Pairs trade captures Frontier's near-term repricing (investigation spotlight, operational concerns) vs. Southwest's relative resilience as competitive beneficiary. News-driven edge highest in first week; NTSB investigation timeline extends beyond 1 week, but immediate market repricing and sentiment peak decay within 5-7 days as initial headlines fade and market awaits formal findings.”
Nick Powell: LUV - ULCC — “Frontier Airlines (ULCC) runway fatality in Denver creates acute negative sentiment and NTSB investigation spotlight. Brand damage, operational/safety scrutiny, and regulatory uncertainty pressure near-term performance. Southwest Airlines (LUV) unaffected as direct competitor and benefits from relative positioning during Frontier's reputation hit. Pairs trade: long LUV (beneficiary), short ULCC (incident victim). Asymmetric setup exploiting single-operator incident sentiment peak decay within first week.”
Entry: May 11, 2026, 8:00 AM · LUV @ $40.75 / ULCC @ $5.19
Today: May 15, 2026, 8:00 AM · LUV @ $38.88 / ULCC @ $4.78
Prices delayed ~15 min
| Date | LUV | ULCC | Net | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 8:00 AM | $40.75 | +0.00% | $5.19 | +0.00% | +0.00% |
| May 11, 10:00 AM | $40.99 | +0.59% | $5.10 | +1.73% | +1.16% |
| May 11, 11:00 AM | $40.93 | +0.44% | $5.16 | +0.58% | +0.51% |
| May 11, 12:00 PM | $40.90 | +0.37% | $5.12 | +1.28% | +0.82% |
| May 11, 1:00 PM | $40.73 | -0.05% | $5.13 | +1.16% | +0.55% |
| May 11, 1:30 PM | $40.32 | -1.06% | $5.13 | +1.25% | +0.10% |
| May 11, 2:30 PM | $40.02 | -1.79% | $5.04 | +2.91% | +0.56% |
| May 11, 3:30 PM | $40.17 | -1.42% | $5.09 | +1.92% | +0.25% |
| May 11, 4:30 PM | $40.07 | -1.67% | $5.11 | +1.45% | -0.11% |
| May 11, 5:30 PM | $39.98 | -1.89% | $5.09 | +1.93% | +0.02% |
| May 11, 6:30 PM | $40.08 | -1.64% | $5.05 | +2.60% | +0.48% |
| May 11, 7:30 PM | $40.01 | -1.82% | $5.03 | +3.08% | +0.63% |
| May 11, 8:00 PM | $40.12 | -1.55% | $5.09 | +1.93% | +0.19% |
| May 11, 9:00 PM | $40.00 | -1.84% | $5.00 | +3.66% | +0.91% |
| May 11, 10:00 PM | $40.01 | -1.82% | $5.08 | +2.12% | +0.15% |
| May 11, 11:00 PM | $40.02 | -1.80% | $5.01 | +3.47% | +0.84% |
| May 12, 9:00 AM | $39.26 | -3.66% | $4.88 | +6.05% | +1.20% |
| May 12, 11:00 AM | $39.76 | -2.43% | $4.93 | +5.01% | +1.29% |
| May 12, 12:00 PM | $39.78 | -2.38% | $4.95 | +4.62% | +1.12% |
| May 12, 1:00 PM | $39.67 | -2.65% | $4.92 | +5.20% | +1.28% |
| May 12, 1:30 PM | $39.17 | -3.87% | $4.68 | +9.73% | +2.93% |
| May 12, 2:30 PM | $38.90 | -4.53% | $4.62 | +10.98% | +3.23% |
| May 12, 3:30 PM | $39.09 | -4.07% | $4.63 | +10.79% | +3.36% |
| May 12, 4:30 PM | $39.07 | -4.12% | $4.63 | +10.79% | +3.33% |
| May 12, 5:30 PM | $39.15 | -3.93% | $4.67 | +10.02% | +3.05% |
| May 12, 6:30 PM | $39.41 | -3.29% | $4.70 | +9.54% | +3.12% |
| May 12, 7:30 PM | $39.48 | -3.12% | $4.72 | +9.15% | +3.02% |
| May 12, 8:00 PM | $39.47 | -3.14% | $4.70 | +9.44% | +3.15% |
| May 12, 9:00 PM | $39.36 | -3.41% | $4.70 | +9.44% | +3.02% |
| May 12, 10:00 PM | $39.49 | -3.09% | $4.70 | +9.44% | +3.17% |
| May 12, 11:00 PM | $39.59 | -2.85% | $4.70 | +9.43% | +3.29% |
| May 13, 11:00 AM | $39.42 | -3.26% | $4.77 | +8.09% | +2.41% |
| May 13, 12:00 PM | $39.23 | -3.73% | $4.62 | +10.98% | +3.63% |
| May 13, 1:00 PM | $39.10 | -4.05% | $4.64 | +10.57% | +3.26% |
| May 13, 1:30 PM | $39.65 | -2.70% | $4.83 | +6.90% | +2.10% |
| May 13, 2:30 PM | $39.26 | -3.66% | $4.76 | +8.19% | +2.27% |
| May 13, 3:30 PM | $39.40 | -3.31% | $4.71 | +9.25% | +2.97% |
| May 13, 4:30 PM | $39.50 | -3.07% | $4.70 | +9.34% | +3.14% |
| May 13, 5:30 PM | $39.36 | -3.41% | $4.67 | +10.00% | +3.29% |
| May 13, 6:30 PM | $39.53 | -3.01% | $4.72 | +8.96% | +2.98% |
| May 13, 7:30 PM | $39.41 | -3.29% | $4.72 | +9.06% | +2.88% |
| May 13, 8:00 PM | $39.60 | -2.81% | $4.75 | +8.48% | +2.83% |
| May 13, 9:00 PM | $39.48 | -3.12% | $4.75 | +8.48% | +2.68% |
| May 13, 10:00 PM | $39.50 | -3.07% | $4.73 | +8.85% | +2.89% |
| May 13, 11:00 PM | $39.45 | -3.19% | $4.75 | +8.48% | +2.64% |
| May 14, 11:00 AM | $39.57 | -2.90% | $4.75 | +8.48% | +2.79% |
| May 14, 12:00 PM | $39.72 | -2.53% | $4.72 | +9.11% | +3.29% |
| May 14, 1:00 PM | $39.72 | -2.53% | $4.80 | +7.51% | +2.49% |
| May 14, 1:30 PM | $39.43 | -3.24% | $4.76 | +8.19% | +2.47% |
| May 14, 2:30 PM | $39.43 | -3.24% | $4.77 | +8.09% | +2.43% |
| May 14, 3:30 PM | $39.74 | -2.48% | $4.88 | +5.97% | +1.75% |
| May 14, 4:30 PM | $39.62 | -2.77% | $4.84 | +6.65% | +1.94% |
| May 14, 5:30 PM | $39.40 | -3.30% | $4.86 | +6.26% | +1.48% |
| May 14, 6:30 PM | $39.28 | -3.61% | $4.83 | +6.94% | +1.66% |
| May 14, 7:30 PM | $39.32 | -3.51% | $4.84 | +6.65% | +1.57% |
| May 14, 8:00 PM | $39.32 | -3.51% | $4.82 | +7.19% | +1.84% |
| May 14, 9:00 PM | $39.40 | -3.31% | $4.77 | +8.09% | +2.39% |
| May 14, 10:00 PM | $39.29 | -3.58% | $4.86 | +6.36% | +1.39% |
| May 14, 11:00 PM | $39.35 | -3.42% | $4.84 | +6.74% | +1.66% |
| May 15, 8:00 AM | $38.88 | -4.59% | $4.78 | +7.90% | +1.66% |