MSFT - TSLA Pairs Trade
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1 position on this trade
1 long · 0 short
1 active position
Nick Powell: MSFT - TSLA — “Federal jury unanimously dismisses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI/Sam Altman, validating OpenAI's for-profit pivot and removing legal overhang. This creates asymmetric impacts on MSFT vs. TSLA: (1) MSFT benefits directly—clears reputational/litigation risk for its largest AI strategic partnership (OpenAI via Azure), validates continued capital deployment into AI/AGI infrastructure, strengthens Azure AI's competitive moat as enterprise-preferred platform for advanced models; (2) TSLA faces headwinds—Musk's highly publicized lawsuit loss is a personal/reputational setback, reduces his leverage in future tech policy negotiations, increases litigation/distraction burden for CEO attention. The lawsuit dismissal also validates the for-profit AI model Musk opposed, contradicting his public positioning on AI ethics and corporate governance. Pairs trade captures the OpenAI-partnership beneficiary (MSFT) vs. Musk-distraction/litigation-loss exposure (TSLA). News-driven edge is highest in the first week as market reprices Musk's litigation setback and Microsoft's OpenAI partnership clarity. 1-week duration captures maximum alpha from this litigation-dismissal repricing without holding through longer-term strategic execution risk.”
Entry: May 18, 2026, 8:00 AM · MSFT @ $420.24 / TSLA @ $419.99
Exit: May 26, 2026, 11:00 PM · MSFT @ $415.25 / TSLA @ $435.37
Prices delayed ~15 min
| Date | MSFT | TSLA | Net | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 8:00 AM | $420.24 | +0.00% | $419.99 | +0.00% | +0.00% |
| May 18, 9:00 AM | $419.31 | -0.22% | $418.50 | +0.35% | +0.07% |
| May 18, 10:00 AM | $418.75 | -0.35% | $417.65 | +0.56% | +0.10% |
| May 18, 11:00 AM | $418.61 | -0.39% | $415.18 | +1.15% | +0.38% |
| May 18, 12:00 PM | $419.72 | -0.12% | $418.20 | +0.43% | +0.15% |
| May 18, 1:00 PM | $416.63 | -0.86% | $419.40 | +0.14% | -0.36% |
| May 18, 1:30 PM | $421.89 | +0.39% | $413.88 | +1.45% | +0.92% |
| May 18, 2:30 PM | $417.63 | -0.62% | $408.34 | +2.77% | +1.08% |
| May 18, 3:30 PM | $417.92 | -0.55% | $409.41 | +2.52% | +0.98% |
| May 18, 4:30 PM | $423.01 | +0.66% | $410.04 | +2.37% | +1.51% |
| May 18, 5:30 PM | $423.83 | +0.85% | $407.06 | +3.08% | +1.97% |
| May 18, 6:30 PM | $422.45 | +0.53% | $408.49 | +2.74% | +1.63% |
| May 18, 7:30 PM | $423.66 | +0.81% | $410.07 | +2.36% | +1.59% |
| May 18, 8:00 PM | $423.41 | +0.75% | $409.82 | +2.42% | +1.59% |
| May 18, 9:00 PM | $423.25 | +0.72% | $409.58 | +2.48% | +1.60% |
| May 18, 10:00 PM | $423.12 | +0.69% | $410.49 | +2.26% | +1.47% |
| May 18, 11:00 PM | $423.15 | +0.69% | $409.47 | +2.51% | +1.60% |
| May 19, 8:00 AM | $424.73 | +1.07% | $406.99 | +3.10% | +2.08% |
| May 19, 9:00 AM | $424.50 | +1.01% | $405.50 | +3.45% | +2.23% |
| May 19, 10:00 AM | $425.39 | +1.23% | $406.16 | +3.29% | +2.26% |
| May 19, 11:00 AM | $428.17 | +1.89% | $405.64 | +3.42% | +2.65% |
| May 19, 12:00 PM | $427.92 | +1.83% | $404.85 | +3.60% | +2.72% |
| May 19, 1:00 PM | $429.90 | +2.30% | $403.24 | +3.99% | +3.14% |
| May 19, 1:30 PM | $425.04 | +1.14% | $395.83 | +5.75% | +3.45% |
| May 19, 2:30 PM | $421.04 | +0.19% | $397.51 | +5.35% | +2.77% |
| May 19, 3:30 PM | $417.71 | -0.60% | $396.84 | +5.51% | +2.46% |
| May 19, 4:30 PM | $418.79 | -0.35% | $403.08 | +4.03% | +1.84% |
| May 19, 5:30 PM | $419.16 | -0.26% | $404.79 | +3.62% | +1.68% |
| May 19, 6:30 PM | $418.23 | -0.48% | $404.09 | +3.79% | +1.65% |
| May 19, 7:30 PM | $417.56 | -0.64% | $404.16 | +3.77% | +1.57% |
| May 19, 8:00 PM | $416.45 | -0.90% | $403.94 | +3.82% | +1.46% |
| May 19, 9:00 PM | $416.72 | -0.84% | $404.01 | +3.80% | +1.48% |
| May 19, 10:00 PM | $416.12 | -0.98% | $403.59 | +3.90% | +1.46% |
| May 19, 11:00 PM | $416.78 | -0.82% | $404.68 | +3.65% | +1.41% |
| May 20, 8:00 AM | $416.25 | -0.95% | $408.54 | +2.73% | +0.89% |
| May 20, 9:00 AM | $415.90 | -1.03% | $408.25 | +2.80% | +0.88% |
| May 20, 10:00 AM | $415.65 | -1.09% | $408.20 | +2.81% | +0.86% |
| May 20, 11:00 AM | $416.00 | -1.01% | $409.20 | +2.57% | +0.78% |
| May 20, 12:00 PM | $416.35 | -0.93% | $408.91 | +2.64% | +0.86% |
| May 20, 1:00 PM | $414.00 | -1.48% | $407.61 | +2.95% | +0.73% |
| May 20, 1:30 PM | $413.79 | -1.54% | $408.01 | +2.85% | +0.66% |
| May 20, 2:30 PM | $416.40 | -0.91% | $412.39 | +1.81% | +0.45% |
| May 20, 3:30 PM | $418.42 | -0.43% | $411.88 | +1.93% | +0.75% |
| May 20, 4:30 PM | $419.34 | -0.21% | $413.90 | +1.45% | +0.62% |
| May 20, 5:30 PM | $420.45 | +0.05% | $412.84 | +1.70% | +0.88% |
| May 20, 6:30 PM | $420.46 | +0.05% | $413.57 | +1.53% | +0.79% |
| May 20, 7:30 PM | $421.06 | +0.20% | $417.27 | +0.65% | +0.42% |
| May 20, 8:00 PM | $420.07 | -0.04% | $415.39 | +1.10% | +0.53% |
| May 20, 9:00 PM | $419.80 | -0.10% | $415.82 | +0.99% | +0.44% |
| May 20, 10:00 PM | $418.62 | -0.39% | $414.40 | +1.33% | +0.47% |
| May 20, 11:00 PM | $418.46 | -0.42% | $414.75 | +1.25% | +0.41% |
| May 21, 8:00 AM | $418.95 | -0.31% | $424.79 | -1.14% | -0.73% |
| May 21, 9:00 AM | $419.56 | -0.16% | $424.50 | -1.07% | -0.62% |
| May 21, 10:00 AM | $417.50 | -0.65% | $420.58 | -0.14% | -0.40% |
| May 21, 11:00 AM | $418.16 | -0.49% | $421.96 | -0.47% | -0.48% |
| May 21, 12:00 PM | $418.70 | -0.37% | $421.78 | -0.43% | -0.40% |
| May 21, 1:00 PM | $424.80 | +1.09% | $422.25 | -0.54% | +0.27% |
| May 21, 1:30 PM | $417.32 | -0.69% | $414.33 | +1.35% | +0.33% |
| May 21, 2:30 PM | $418.78 | -0.35% | $417.46 | +0.60% | +0.13% |
| May 21, 3:30 PM | $417.19 | -0.73% | $416.82 | +0.75% | +0.01% |
| May 21, 4:30 PM | $417.43 | -0.67% | $421.25 | -0.30% | -0.48% |
| May 21, 5:30 PM | $418.96 | -0.30% | $420.46 | -0.11% | -0.21% |
| May 21, 6:30 PM | $418.95 | -0.31% | $418.20 | +0.43% | +0.06% |
| May 21, 7:30 PM | $419.04 | -0.29% | $417.75 | +0.53% | +0.12% |
| May 21, 8:00 PM | $420.75 | +0.12% | $417.13 | +0.68% | +0.40% |
| May 21, 9:00 PM | $420.24 | +0.00% | $417.37 | +0.62% | +0.31% |
| May 21, 10:00 PM | $420.70 | +0.11% | $418.10 | +0.45% | +0.28% |
| May 21, 11:00 PM | $420.98 | +0.18% | $418.39 | +0.38% | +0.28% |
| May 22, 8:00 AM | $420.70 | +0.11% | $421.40 | -0.34% | -0.11% |
| May 22, 9:00 AM | $418.07 | -0.52% | $417.78 | +0.53% | +0.00% |
| May 22, 10:00 AM | $418.44 | -0.43% | $417.02 | +0.71% | +0.14% |
| May 22, 11:00 AM | $419.33 | -0.22% | $418.15 | +0.44% | +0.11% |
| May 22, 12:00 PM | $420.36 | +0.03% | $420.65 | -0.16% | -0.06% |
| May 22, 1:00 PM | $419.90 | -0.08% | $422.66 | -0.64% | -0.36% |
| May 22, 1:30 PM | $416.70 | -0.84% | $424.63 | -1.10% | -0.97% |
| May 22, 2:30 PM | $419.39 | -0.20% | $428.64 | -2.06% | -1.13% |
| May 22, 3:30 PM | $419.61 | -0.15% | $427.55 | -1.80% | -0.97% |
| May 22, 4:30 PM | $418.81 | -0.34% | $429.78 | -2.33% | -1.34% |
| May 22, 5:30 PM | $418.82 | -0.34% | $427.93 | -1.89% | -1.11% |
| May 22, 6:30 PM | $418.30 | -0.46% | $425.88 | -1.40% | -0.93% |
| May 22, 7:30 PM | $418.58 | -0.40% | $425.95 | -1.42% | -0.91% |
| May 22, 8:00 PM | $418.44 | -0.43% | $424.90 | -1.17% | -0.80% |
| May 22, 9:00 PM | $418.58 | -0.40% | $425.02 | -1.20% | -0.80% |
| May 22, 10:00 PM | $418.05 | -0.52% | $424.22 | -1.01% | -0.76% |
| May 22, 11:00 PM | $417.79 | -0.58% | $423.68 | -0.88% | -0.73% |
| May 26, 8:00 AM | $418.90 | -0.32% | $428.34 | -1.99% | -1.15% |
| May 26, 9:00 AM | $419.43 | -0.19% | $429.60 | -2.29% | -1.24% |
| May 26, 10:00 AM | $419.62 | -0.15% | $430.58 | -2.52% | -1.33% |
| May 26, 11:00 AM | $419.57 | -0.16% | $430.70 | -2.55% | -1.35% |
| May 26, 12:00 PM | $418.74 | -0.36% | $430.40 | -2.48% | -1.42% |
| May 26, 1:00 PM | $416.64 | -0.86% | $430.09 | -2.40% | -1.63% |
| May 26, 1:30 PM | $418.98 | -0.30% | $426.98 | -1.66% | -0.98% |
| May 26, 2:30 PM | $415.21 | -1.20% | $433.35 | -3.18% | -2.19% |
| May 26, 3:30 PM | $415.99 | -1.01% | $429.93 | -2.37% | -1.69% |
| May 26, 4:30 PM | $413.65 | -1.57% | $432.37 | -2.95% | -2.26% |
| May 26, 5:30 PM | $415.11 | -1.22% | $432.83 | -3.06% | -2.14% |
| May 26, 6:30 PM | $415.74 | -1.07% | $431.05 | -2.63% | -1.85% |
| May 26, 7:30 PM | $416.15 | -0.97% | $433.57 | -3.23% | -2.10% |
| May 26, 8:00 PM | $414.98 | -1.25% | $433.15 | -3.13% | -2.19% |
| May 26, 9:00 PM | $415.48 | -1.13% | $435.80 | -3.76% | -2.45% |
| May 26, 10:00 PM | $415.00 | -1.25% | $434.81 | -3.53% | -2.39% |
| May 26, 11:00 PM | $415.25 | -1.19% | $435.37 | -3.66% | -2.42% |